The Economic Times daily newspaper is available online now.

    How will India's space odysseys fare after Chandrayaan-2?

    Synopsis

    India did not get to land on the moon but ISRO is on mission mode. There are some big plans for the future.

    ET Bureau
    When India’s space scientists lost contact with the Vikram lander of Chandrayaan-2, just 2.1 km above the moon’s surface, the silence back on earth was deafening.

    Did India miss its moon landing by a whisker? The tense moments ominously flashed back to what K Sivan, chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), said about the landing back in July: “15 minutes of terror.” As the lander named after the father of India’s space programme, Vikram Sarabhai, began its descent at 1.37 am IST on Saturday, scientists at the Bengaluru command centre had to just wait and watch.

    Just four hours before that, at 9.30 pm, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached Bengaluru, scientists had updated the autonomous control system of the lander with the latest imagery of the landing slots on the moon, taken from the orbiter above. The final descent is similar to a driverless car going on earth’s roads. Unlike the driverless car, where the algorithm is constantly trained with data on the routes, this was new territory for Vikram as well as for any space agency — this was the first ever attempt to land on the polar region of the lunar surface.

    As a nation watched, deep into the night, Sivan confirmed his worst fears. His quick walk to brief Modi said it all.

    ISRO’s official line is that the communication with the lander was lost. Chandrayaan-2, however, is still a marvellous technological leap for the space agency.

    PS Goel, a former secretary of earth sciences, who led the satellite programme at ISRO, says, “Communication was lost with the lander. We need to analyse the data to understand what caused the disruption.” One scientist, who has worked on the tests on the lander, says it could have crashed. “Moon has one-sixth of the earth’s gravity. Either the thrusters or the autonomous control system failed, which could have led to the crash,” says the person who did not want to be named. “They may not have done enough simulations on the ground.”

    Sivan has already started reviewing what went wrong with the mission. K Vijay Raghavan, principal scientific advisor to the government, tweeted on Saturday, “ISRO project review teams made presentations to mission management, chaired by Dr Sivan right through the early hours of today onward. They are already addressing causes and learning from the event.” He added: “Success criteria were defined for each and every phase of the mission and so far 90-95% of the mission objectives have been accomplished and will continue to contribute to lunar science notwithstanding the loss of communication with the lander.” Even Goel agrees that “it was a successful mission”.

    EIGHT-PAYLOADS


    The Chandrayaan-2 orbiter, which contains eight instruments on board, is going around the moon. The silver lining is that the orbiter’s life is being extended to seven years from the planned one year. Scientists say this would bring more insights into the earth’s satellite that ISRO could use for potential lunar missions.

    Former ISRO chairman G Madhavan Nair, too, rated the mission as already achieving 95% of its objectives. “I think we need not worry too much.... More than 95% of the mission objectives have been achieved,” Nair was quoted as saying by the news agency PTI.

    Still, had Vikram landed on the moon, it would have been a different — and a far greater and a more glorious — story. For, the south polar region, where it was supposed to land, has craters that are cold traps, which scientists expect to have water in abundance. It was ISRO’s Chandrayaan-1 mission a decade ago that first discovered traces of water on the moon.

    Had the Vikram lander and the Pragyaan rover from Chandrayaan-2 touched the lunar surface, it would have possibly helped in discovering water in abundance in the region on the moon, which is set to become a hotbed for global space agencies to set up their bases for interplanetary travel.

    The US space agency National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has already indicated that its plan to send astronauts back to the moon needs data from India’s second lunar mission.

    However, ISRO doesn’t yet have a plan to send a repeat lander mission to the moon. If the space agency decides, it could take as long as two years to land a spacecraft, says a scientist. The next plan is to send a rover on a landing expedition by the Japanese space agency Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency ( JAXA) in 2023 as Japan looks to understand the moon terrain as a precursor to build a base for interplanetary expeditions.

    Moon-2


    Beyond the Moon
    Back home, ISRO has lined up a slew of interplanetary explorations, including a human spaceflight mission Gaganyaan by 2021. While ISRO is lauded for its successful programmes, and often envied globally for its ability to deliver complex missions to space on tight budgets and timelines, it also faces challenges.

    Take, for example, ISRO’s most powerful rocket. The first operational mission of the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle Mark 3 (GSLV-Mk3) was Chandrayaan-2. The credit for the success should go to Sivan, the rocket scientist-chairman who bet on the new-generation launch vehicle. Few space agencies take the risk of sending a high impact mission of this nature on a newly designed rocket.

    Sivan and other scientists had to wait nearly a decade to validate its powerful rocket design as ISRO’s wind tunnel was being used for Russian design-inspired GSLV rocket, whose cryogenic technology the space agency was struggling to master. Chandrayaan-2 was initially planned on GSLV-Mk2, the second-generation heavy rocket, with the lander provided by the Russians. However, India cancelled the deal and decided to build its own lander and rover. As the weight increased, ISRO decided on the GSLV-Mk3.

    It was only in 2017 that ISRO opened a new wind tunnel that would help finalise the design of its next-generation rockets and the reusable launch vehicle.

    “I don’t think this will affect future programmes,” says Ajey Lele, senior fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, about the failure to land. “The GSLVMk3 was the only thing that was linked to the future. It can carry four tonne satellites and it performed really well." One scientist says it could have an impact. The person recounted the recall of GSAT-11 satellite from an Arianespace rocket in French Guyana in 2018 after ISRO scientists found that the communication satellite did not undergo critical pressure test. This had a cascading effect on future satellite launches that got delayed by six months and more.

    MOON-33


    Space Flight
    One of the big missions ahead is Gaganyaan-X three Indian astronauts are expected to fly to space in the country's first human spaceflight mission. It was conceived in 2008 and ISRO scientists had initially set a seven-year time frame. Till a few years ago, the money sanctioned for the project was around `200 crore. Only in 2018 did the government sanction Rs 10,000 crore and announce a deadline of 2021. While ISRO has made efforts in building a crew vehicle and is working on designing a more powerful rocket, it still needs help from outside - to train astronauts and also to build key technologies for a safe human spaceflight.

    ISRO has signed MoUs with the Russian space agency Roscosmos and the European Space Agency for assistance in the first human spaceflight. The Indian Air Force has shortlisted 10 pilots for the spaceflight, but training an astronaut requires massive facilities that India lacks. Now, Indian astronauts will be trained by Russians. Roscosmos will also assist in equipping the crew module with life-support systems ahead of the mission. A space scientist says that India could lose as much as a third of the Rs 10,000 crore budget, set aside for the human spaceflight mission, to foreign agencies for their help.

    "Every space organisation, including NASA, says it has less money. My view is that ISRO should take one mission at a time. If the government gives it more money, then it can have more groups and work on more missions," says Lele.

    ISRO is a fully integrated government-run organisation. It does research, develop spacecraft and rockets, make them and even launch them. It also markets services like remote sensing images. While there are private players who have emerged in India's space industry, they haven't scaled up due to ISRO's control over the ecosystem.

    ISRO engages private firms such as Larsen and Toubro, Godrej Aerospace and Walchand Industries. In the Chandrayaan-2 mission, around 500 companies contributed to building the rocket, and around 120 companies for the spacecraft. Most of these are small companies that ISRO has nurtured but has not helped them scale.

    The first steps to ceding control are expected in 2020 when a consortium led by L&T, Godrej and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd will be allowed to build the Small Satellite Launch Vehicle (SSLV) and the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) for its global customers. The agency has also engaged private vendors to assemble satellites, but on their own premises.

    ISRO has formed New Space India Ltd, which would be an interface with industry to outsource more systems. The progress, though, has been slow, especially when companies such as SpaceX and Rocket Lab are disrupting the global space market.

    There are many frontiers to breach and conquer.


    (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
    ( Originally published on Sep 07, 2019 )
    (Catch all the Business News, Breaking News, Budget 2024 News, Budget 2024 Live Coverage, Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.)

    Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.

    Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the ET ePaper online.

    ...more

    (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
    (Catch all the Business News, Breaking News, Budget 2024 News, Budget 2024 Live Coverage, Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.)

    Download The Economic Times News App to get Daily Market Updates & Live Business News.

    Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the ET ePaper online.

    ...more
    The Economic Times

    Stories you might be interested in