This is an opinion column
The public loves Trump’s border security efforts. But the public hates Trump’s tariff tax hikes, trade war, and economic failures.
For emphasis, Trump deserves credit for fighting for trade balances. Too many presidents avoid the issue.
But Trump’s goal is not the problem. Balanced trade is good. The problem is that Trump fumbles the fight.
Trade deficit data
America’s worst trade deficits are:
- $422 billion – China
- $135 billion – Mexico
- $124 billion – Vietnam
- $ 92 billion – Canada
- $ 78 billion – Germany
- $ 74 billion – Japan
- $ 67 billion – Ireland
- $ 49 billion – South Korea
- $ 47 billion – India
- $ 44 billion – Italy & India (each)
Each of these offending nations use unfair trade practices (blocking American imports; using cheap or slave labor; stealing American intellectual property; etc.) to America’s detriment, causing America’s economy to hemorrhage a trillion-dollars/year that would otherwise stay in America and benefit Americans.
Trump’s trade war blunders
Successful trade wars start with good, wise leaders who craft sound strategies they pursue until victory is achieved. Unfortunately, Trump’s trade war strategy has been poorly led, planned, and executed.
Trump’s blunder #1 is making the trade war America versus the world.
In a one-on-one fight (even with America’s #1 trade foe: China), America is more likely to win because America’s economic might is greater than any other nation on earth. That economic strength disparity is leverage that enhances America’s ability to win.
Unfortunately, Trump’s “America versus the World” strategy forces our economic foes to unite and collectively battle America. Since the world’s economy is far larger than America’s, economic leverage shifts against America in favor of the world and increases America’s risk.
Trump’s blunder #2 is inconsistency.
Consistency and perseverance help persuade competitor nations that America is committed to winning the trade war, thus encouraging compromise.
Unfortunately, Trump’s trade war is anything but consistent, as tariff rates move up and down, tariff product targets change impulsively, and countries targeted for tariffs change regularly; all seemingly at random; all seemingly on a moment’s notice.
Trade war competitors interpret Trump’s vacillation as weakness. Weakness emboldens them to reject America’s fair-trade demands.
Trump’s blunder #3 is that the magnitude of his sudden, off-the-charts tariffs are counter-productive (perhaps “void of economic thought and reality” is more descriptive). The tariff magnitudes hurt America, not help it, because they reduce public support for Trump’s trade war, which increases trade war loss risk.
Incrementalism is key.
It takes time (often years) for new American manufacturing plants to be built and supply chains to form that replace products supplied by foreign competitors.
Until those new supply chains form, essential products like medicines and electronics, and even discretionary products like Christmas toys, become prohibitively expensive or disappear from shelves.
That’s bad for America and American consumers.
Hence, gradual increases in tariffs until trade balances are reached is a much less painful and much better strategy, but a strategy Trump unwisely discarded.
Trump’s Trade War Damages America. Trump’s trade war significantly hurts Americans in myriad ways. That’s why, if you start a trade war, you better win it. Otherwise, the self-inflicted economic damage is for nothing.
Higher Taxes Hurt Families. While no one knows how badly Trump’s tariff tax hikes hurt Americans (because Trump’s tariffs seemingly fluctuate daily), the Tax Foundation estimates Trump’s tariffs will:
(R)aise $2.1 trillion in revenue over the next decade on a conventional basis ($1.5 trillion on a dynamic basis) and reduce US GDP by 0.8%, all before foreign retaliation. Including foreign retaliation announced as of April 10, the tariffs reduce US GDP by 1%.
That’s a lot of disposable income taken from struggling families that worsens living standards.
Alienating America’s Allies. It is one thing to alienate America’s geo-political foes, it is another to alienate America’s allies. Trump’s “America versus the World” trade war, coupled with the unnecessarily brash and insulting way Trump prosecutes it, alienates America’s allies that we may need at any time. That’s very unwise, particularly when better strategy options exist.
Worsening Debt Service Risks. Trump’s trade war worsens America’s already bad deficit and debt crisis.
America suffers from a $36+ trillion debt and $952 billion in annual debt service costs.
Roughly 24% of America’s debt is owned by foreign entities. Trump’s “America versus the world” trade war motivates foreign debt holders to not finance America’s debt. Fewer creditors mean higher debt interest rates to finance debt.
Since Trump announced his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, 10-year Treasury Bill rates have increased from 4.2% to 4.4%. While a mere 0.2-point rate increase may not seem like much, on a $36 trillion debt it’s an additional $72 billion/year debt service cost (roughly three NASA budgets – poof, money gone).
Some argue T-Bill rate increases motivated Trump to flip-flop his tariff tax hike details. In any event, let’s hope T-Bill rate increases are a short-term blip not a trend. Time will tell.
Americans’ Net Worth Hammered. Much of America’s retirement plans and wealth is in stocks. Since Trump’s inauguration, and largely because of Trump’s trade wars, the stock market has lost roughly $10 trillion in value. That’s bad.
Falling Dollar. Under Trump, the dollar has fallen 9% in value in 2025. A falling dollar means higher inflationary pressure, which, in turn, reduces the purchasing power of American paychecks. None of that is good.
Stocks hammered. Falling dollar. These things add up, causing GOP megadonor Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO of Citadel, to say America “has become 20% poorer in four weeks.”
I don’t fully agree with Ken Griffin’s assessment, but he is 100% accurate on his basic principle: America’s economy is in reverse, and all of America will eventually suffer for that unless there is a major course change.
Falling public support risks Trump agenda
In my view, Trump’s unnecessary, self-inflicted economic damage is causing Trump’s public support to fall.
Real Clear Politics’ daily average of reputable polls reveals Trump’s job approval plummeted from January’s net positive 6.2% favorable rating to a net negative 7.1% unfavorable rating, which adds up to a 13.2-point deterioration.
Similarly, Trump’s personal unfavorable rating dropped further from an inaugural 0.2% net unfavorable rating to a 5.4% net unfavorable rating, a net 5.2-point drop.
Approval rating drops of these magnitudes in just three months are political dynamite and undermine a president’s ability to achieve his goals.
As one blow-back example, Trump’s plummeting public support contributed to bad special election results in Wisconsin (Supreme Court) and Florida (Congress), which, in turn, panicked Trump into torpedoing Congressman Elise Stefanik’s U.N. Ambassador nomination out of fear the GOP will lose the House.
Conclusion and forecast
Proper trade war strategy is to focus on one country best to beat, win that fight, message that victory to the world, and then negotiate for fair trade practices that cause balanced trade, all without fighting a second trade war.
If one trade war fight is insufficient, then pick the second-best country to fight, win that trade war, and repeat the process until negotiated victories are achieved world-wide.
Trump’s poor strategy and bungling means America will likely lose Trump’s “America versus the World” trade war. Perhaps it can still be won. But, if not, then America will continue to hemorrhage wealth because of unfair trade practices. That’s bad.
Even if America loses Trump’s trade war, be ready for Trump to do what Trump does best: deflect and blame someone else, like Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for the self-inflicted economic damage Trump himself caused.
Stories by Mo Brooks
- Mo Brooks: Don’t believe the hype. Trade deal with Britain is no big win.
- Mo Brooks: Trump turns to Alabama to reverse falling public support
- Mo Brooks: Trump is winning on deportations
- Mo Brooks: When Donald Trump sort of apologized
- Mo Brooks: The words of Alabama Republicans don’t match their votes on national debt
Mo Brooks served on the House Armed Services Committee for 12 years and the Foreign Affairs Committee for 6 years. Brooks graduated from Duke University in 3 years with a double major in political science and economics (highest honors in economics).