Fighting for Nasa’s soul: dead, crumbling or re-engineering?

Mr Moses Wetang’ula of Ford-Kenya (left) and Mr Musyoka meet at Wiper party offices in Nairobi on July 31, 2018. PHOTO | COURTESY

What you need to know:

  • Already the team is experiencing a major shifting of political stands.

  • Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka have opted to work with Mr Kenyatta, while Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula appears to be gravitating towards DP William Ruto.
  • Mr Musalia Mudavadi is at a crossroad, with members of his Amani Nation Congress party deeply divided on which direction to take.

In August last year, the Opposition gave President Uhuru Kenyatta the stiffest challenge at the ballot.

However, one year later, the once formidable National Super Alliance (Nasa) team is struggling to hold together.

Already the team is experiencing a major shifting of political stands with Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, who were Nasa’s presidential and running mate candidates, opting to work with Mr Kenyatta, while Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula appears to be gravitating towards Deputy President William Ruto.

The remaining Nasa principal, Mr Musalia Mudavadi, is at a crossroad, with members of his Amani Nation Congress (ANC) party deeply divided on which direction to take.

In the face of this utter confusion, only Mr Wetang’ula has come to openly confess the apparent reality — that Nasa is as good as dead, something disputed by Mr Odinga’s ODM.

EMERGING RIFTS

However, Mr Mudavadi, who is the brain behind the formation of Nasa, is more realistic about the emerging rifts and confusion within the Opposition:

“It is worth noting that coalitions, even the victorious, usually have their lows after elections. Member parties usually engage in postmortem valuations of their worth vis-a-vis partners. This may seem like negative competition or altercation, but it is just blank friendly fire.”

As founder of Nasa, the one-time Vice President told Sunday Nation he was obliged to keep the ship afloat: “I must mediate. I am driven by the objectives we all agreed to pursue as Nasa. These objectives didn't terminate with elections. They live on and have become more pertinent given the harsh lives Kenyans are living. We're therefore left with no option in Nasa other than to be guided by our covenant to play our oversight role in and out of Parliament.”

But the source of disagreements, in some instances, is so deep and personalised. Thus mediation may not be that easy.

STARTED MEDIATION

Wiper leader Mr Musyoka, for instance, has started mediation aimed at calming tempers between Mr Odinga and Mr Wetang’ula. The latter has accused the Orange party leader of allegedly scheming to kick him out of the Senate Minority leader position. However, Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua explains the decision to replace the Ford-Kenya leader was solely that of senators allied to Nasa, and not Mr Odinga’s or any of the other principals: “With this clear understanding, the ODM and Ford-Kenya bosses should easily close ranks and it is our hope that the mediation efforts by our party leader will bear fruit.”

However, not many believe efforts to bring together the Nasa principals will succeed. Talk of unity may only be a public relations gimmick, while underground new networks are being created and political ground is shifting fast.

POLITICAL PLAYER

Only last month, for instance, Mr Wambua led a delegation of legislators from the Wiper party to meet DP Ruto. And Ford-Kenya’s deputy party leader, Dr Bonnie Khalwale, is categorical that his party is ready reach out to every political player “except one Raila Amolo Odinga”.

And while ODM is putting up a public show of team work, the party’s officials are increasingly getting cozy with President Kenyatta’s allies in the wider Central Kenya region.

The same officials, including secretary-general Edwin Sifuna, have stated they are no longer keen in wasting time on building alliances with partners who are “politically short”.

And interestingly, new inter-coalition mergers are also happening. The Sunday Nation has reliably established that ODM and Wiper party leaders, who have opted to work with President Kenyatta, are lately consulting very closely. Similarly, the ANC and Ford-Kenya parties that have been working closely, are about to hammer out a merger deal.

DISBANDED

“It (merger) is work in progress and on course. This week Weta and l just received an update and we were satisfied with the progress. I must add that the interest generated by our detractors convinces us that we are onto a good thing,” Mudavadi told Sunday Nation.

Noting that Nasa was a pre-election coalition whose primary goal was to win the August 2017 poll, political scientist Prof Amukowa Anangwe observes that “such failed coalitions” usually disband.

“But the peculiarity of Kenyan party politics is that coalitions tend to outlive the elections and endure in a quest to re-engineer themselves in the inter-election period in preparation for the next elections,” says Prof Anangwe, who teaches at the University of Dodoma, Tanzania.

NASA DREAM

Prof Anangwe, an ex-Cabinet minister, observes that the January 30 handshake may prove to be a critical juncture and an irreversible turning point that could portend the end of the Nasa dream: “If the handshake lasts longer and leads to the reorganisation of political alliances spearheaded by Uhuru, Raila and others, then Nasa (and probably Jubilee as well) will certainly be abandoned as the political actors reposition themselves and form alternative coalitions.”

In short, argues Prof Anangwe, Nasa is destined to die in the long run, “and any efforts to keep it alive may prove to be an exercise in futility”.