Where the Colts stack up in the suddenly Belichickian AFC South

INDIANAPOLIS – While the mastermind is busy – you know, another Super Bowl game plan to polish up – protégés both old and new are taking their shots, anxious to disprove the notion that Bill Belichick disciples can’t win in this league without Bill Belichick by their side.

Because, let’s be honest – nobody really has.

Suddenly, and probably not coincidentally, the AFC South has a decidedly Belichickian vibe to it. Three of the division’s four teams in 2018 will be led by head coaches with close ties to the never-ending New England dynasty. The thinking: If you can’t beat them, might as well try to copy them.

Maybe they’re tired of their seasons ending in Foxboro. New England: It’s where AFC South seasons go to die. Happened to the Colts in 2013 and 2014. Happened to the Texans a year later. Happened to the Titans two weeks back. Happened to the Jaguars on Sunday.

Thus the changes, the bold gambles on head coaches with intimate knowledge of the league bully that might just be enough, somewhere down the line, to break the unbreakable Patriots. But there’s certainly no guarantee. The past has taught us that.

Belichick’s old middle linebacker, Mike Vrabel, is taking over in Nashville, tapped with lifting Marcus Mariota’s game and the Titans’ talent-thick roster into the league’s elite. An NFL assistant for only three seasons, and a coordinator for one, Vrabel’s name shot swiftly up coaching lists in the past 12 months. (He was also a finalist for the vacancy in Indianapolis.) There’s little doubt an eight-year education in The Belichick Way in the 2000s – a run that included three Super Bowl rings – was instrumental in making Vrabel such an alluring candidate during this coaching cycle.

Down in Houston, his status once shaky, Bill O’Brien recently received a four-year extension from the Texans earlier this month, the future of rookie sensation Deshaun Watson now tied to the man who spent five years tutoring Tom Brady. Of all the Belichick assistants to branch out on their own and lead an NFL franchise, O’Brien has enjoyed the most success. Despite relentless instability at quarterback, he’s led the Texans to two AFC South titles in his four seasons. That was enough for O’Brien to receive a mulligan after this year’s disastrous 4-12 campaign.

Then there’s Josh McDaniels, a hoodie pupil for 14 years across two stints, in many eyes the most sought-after candidate to come out of the Belichick coaching tree despite being the one who failed most spectacularly the first time around. Make no mistake: McDaniels has never proven he can win in this league without Belichick and Brady. Coaching in New England is like starting a mile-race with a half-mile head start. You’re not going to fail with those two.

The Indianapolis Colts believe McDaniels can do what so many Belichick pupils couldn’t – fuse the Patriot way into a new franchise, and win. (McDaniels cannot be officially hired until after the Super Bowl.) The track record is rocky. Eric Mangini flopped in New York, then in Cleveland. Romeo Crennel was canned in Cleveland, then Kansas City. Charlie Weis’ tenure crumbled at Notre Dame, then really crumbled at Kansas. McDaniels didn’t last two years in Denver. All of which furthered this truth: There’s only one Belichick.

Heading into the 2018 season, three branches of the Belichick coaching tree – McDaniels in Indianapolis, Vrabel in Tennessee and Matt Patricia in Detroit – are set to give it another go. In the AFC South, all that’s standing in Vrabel and McDaniels’ way are the reigning division champs, a team armed with the league’s most menacing defense that’s fresh off giving the mighty Patriots all they could handle in Sunday’s thrilling AFC Championship Game.

The case for and against all four teams, and where the Colts – the biggest question mark of the group – stack up:

1. Jacksonville (10-6 in the regular season): The upstart Jaguars, brash and bruising, aren’t going anywhere. A young defensive nucleus led by Jalen Ramsey – a future Defensive Player of the Year – is stout at all three levels, and the playoff experience acquired over the past three weeks, including that inspired effort in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game loss, will be invaluable moving forward. They went toe-to-toe with the Patriots and came up one drive short. They’ll be back.

Blake Bortles seems to play like a Pro Bowler each time he sees the Colts, and Jim Irsay’s draft day proclamation – that running back Leonard Fournette will give this division fits for years – proved spot on. The bumbling Jags of yesteryear are no more. This team is very much for real. Jacksonville has to be the favorite to capture a second straight AFC South crown next season.

2. Tennessee (9-7): It’s not often a team fires its coach after a run to the divisional round of the playoffs, and the franchise’s first playoff win in 14 years. The Titans nonetheless canned Mike Mularkey after their blowout loss in New England a week ago, and in short succession tapped Vrabel as his successor. It’s a risky move. Vrabel’s lone year as an NFL coordinator – this past season with the Texans – saw his unit (hobbled by injuries, to be fair) allow the most points per game in football.

His ties with Titans GM Jon Robinson, a former area scout with the Patriots who climbed the ladder, proved central to the hiring. Vital will be the offensive staff Vrabel puts together around Mariota, whom the Titans need to ascend to a Pro Bowl level if they’re ever going to take the next step. Robinson’s betting big that Vrabel’s the coach who can get them there. Time will tell.

3. Indianapolis (4-12): What the Jaguars, Titans and Texans don’t have is Andrew Luck. Problem is: We’re not certain the Colts do, either.

Despite brimming optimism in the building, the prognosis of Indy’s franchise quarterback remains uncertain, and will until he’s able to return to the field for routine offseason workouts. What we do know: the return of a healthy Luck swings the Colts’ season in an instant. It’s not a stretch to argue the Colts would’ve won five or six more games and been in the playoff hunt with Luck under center in 2017.

Without him, you saw what was missing. It was a four-win team.

While there remain gaping holes across the roster, the Colts find themselves in an enviable position entering a pivotal offseason. They have north of $80 million to spend in free agency, should they so desire, the third-fattest total in the league. They have a top-three draft pick for the first time in six years. They can get a lot done in the next few months.

But make no mistake: The AFC South Andrew Luck will return to in 2018 won’t be the one he left in 2016. The league-record 16-game divisional win streak the Colts orchestrated from the end of the 2012 season through late 2015 seems like a lifetime ago. This division is a cakewalk no more. AFC South wins will be earned.

4. Houston (4-12): No team in the NFL was gashed by injury more than the Texans last fall. J.J. Watt went down. Whitney Mercilus went down. Watson, the phenom who appeared to finally solve the Texans’ issues at quarterback, went down. The season was lost because of it.

Like the Colts, Houston’s prognosis for 2018 rests on the recovery and return of its QB. Watson gives Houston hope. Luck gives the Colts life.

All told, it’s not a stretch to see any of the four teams claiming the division title in 2018. The Colts’ regression over the past two seasons opened the door; years of top-five draft picks and bullish spending in free agency paid off for a dormant Jacksonville team that finally became a contender.

The Titans lured a linebacker, molded by Belichick, in hopes of taking the next step.

The Colts lured an offensive mind, groomed by Belichick for nearly two decades, in hopes of jumpstarting a middling team and revitalizing Andrew Luck.

While the mastermind prepares for yet another Super Bowl Sunday, the division that’s been long bullied into submission by the mighty Patriots retools and regroups, anxious to give chase next fall.

Call Star reporter Zak Keefer at (317) 444-6134 and follow him on Twitter: @zkeefer.