Why exile plan by NASA chief is likely to flop

In modern society, going into exile is no longer the norm. It is not easy to get success stories of governments in exile anymore. Exile is defined as a state of being barred from one’s native country, mainly for political reasons. This may include banishment and expatriation, or simply barring someone from their native country.

Self-exile such as the one NASA leader Raila Odinga is contemplating is normally taken as a form of protest to avoid persecution or legal battles on matters such as tax or crime. Some go into exile as an act of shame or repentance while others take the path to isolate themselves so they can devote their time to a particular course.

The most famous exiles were associated with fleeing to avoid arrest. Others went into exile after threats to be harmed or even killed. More often than not, those who went into exile did so as an act of desperation. They fled their country under cover of darkness or disguised themselves after being prosecuted, harassed or intimidated.

During this time, one had no time to pack their belongings or bid their family and friends farewell. In Africa, rebels and their followers would go into the bush in neighboring countries, regroup and engage in armed warfare. People rarely announce when they are going into exile. Going into exile, therefore, was not for the fainthearted.

During the Cold War, it was easy for governments in exile to win sympathy, get fame and financial support, not just from renegade states but from world’s super powers as well. But times have since changed. A poorly planned exile will bear no fruits.

It’s even worse when one is fleeing from a supposed democratic state and for reasons that appear vague. Foreign countries worth their salt will not accept to host opposition chiefs after world leaders endorsed Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election.

Even worse is the fact that Raila squandered an opportunity to prove his point when he boycotted the repeat presidential election on October 26 last year. Raila’s exile plan would also flop because Kenya is not facing civil strife.

Again many are wondering whether the opposition talk on secession, planned swearing-in of parallel government and the exile is just a ploy to force the Government into a negotiating table.

Raila should follow in the steps of his father Oginga Oginga and Nelson Mandela, who decided for a fight for change from within. Exile is not a good option in the modern society. Such plans are bound to backfire.