What is Rutgers' best chance at Big Ten upset in 2018? | Ranking Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, other powers

By James Kratch | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

Chris Ash made it clear this spring he believes Rutgers is capable of getting to a bowl game in 2018, and that will be the goal his team sets for itself.

It's a realistic goal, given the way the schedule falls. Rutgers should be either favored or no more than a touchdown underdog in six games, and it needs six wins for bowl eligibility. But if Rutgers doesn't win all those games, it will need to find victories elsewhere. Which brings up another key question: Can the Scarlet Knights cause some noise in the regular season and finally cut down one of the Big Ten's traditional powers?

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John Munson | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

With the exception of the program's first-ever Big Ten win against Brady Hoke's mess of a Michigan team, Rutgers has struggled mightily against the league's blue bloods. It is still seeking its first substantial upset in conference play.

Could it come this fall? Rutgers will have its chances with five games against Big Ten royalty - Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin - and a sixth against Northwestern, one of the top teams in recent seasons. Below are our rankings, in ascending order, of the chances Rutgers will have for an upset in each matchup.

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6. AT OHIO STATE

Date: Sept. 8.
All-time series: Ohio State leads, 4-0.
Average score since Rutgers entered Big Ten: Ohio State 55, Rutgers 6 in four games.
Rutgers' FPI victory percentage: 3.6 percent.

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Ronald Martinez | Getty Images

The outlook: If Rutgers can manage to score at the Horseshoe this fall, it will be considerable progress. That's how overmatched the Scarlet Knights have been against the Buckeyes. Ohio State won the Big Ten last year and it will be favored to do so again this season after reloading with more elite talent. Anything can happen, but it would take a miracle for Rutgers to pull this off.

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5. AT MICHIGAN STATE  

Date: Nov. 24.
All-time series: Michigan State leads 6-3. 
Average score since Rutgers entered Big Ten: Michigan State 41, Rutgers 7 in four games.
Rutgers' FPI victory percentage: 5.3 percent.

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Orlando Ramirez | USA TODAY Sports

The outlook: Michigan State throttled Rutgers in last season's finale, and the Spartans return the most production of any team in the nation this fall. The Scarlet Knights could be playing for a bowl bid here, but Michigan State might be playing for the Big Ten East title. Like Ohio State, the Spartans are just far beyond where Rutgers is at this point.

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4. MICHIGAN

Date: Nov. 10.
All-time series: Michigan leads 3-1.
Average score since Rutgers entered Big Ten: Michigan 47, Rutgers 14 in four games.
Rutgers' FPI victory percentage: 11.9 percent.

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Kim Klement | USA TODAY Sports

The outlook: This could be Jim Harbaugh's best team at Michigan. If it is, that's a scary thought for Rutgers considering the Wolverines put 78 on them the last time they were in Piscataway. But while Michigan's defense should be loaded, the offense is a study in projection at this point with quarterback Shea Patterson. Moreover, Harbaugh has been largely underwhelming in his time at his alma mater. Who's to say this is year his bark actually comes with some bite?

A challenging schedule - Michigan’s three games (with a bye week) prior the Rutgers game are Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State - coupled with the potential for another disappointing season could set the table for Rutgers to spring an upset. It’s highly unlikely, but you never know.

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3. AT WISCONSIN

Date: Nov. 3.
All-time series: Wisconsin leads 2-0.
Average score since Rutgers entered Big Ten: Wisconsin 43, Rutgers 5 in two meetings.
Rutgers' FPI victory percentage: 7 percent.

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Mike Ehrmann | Getty Images

The outlook: There are two ways of looking at Wisconsin. The way most will view the Badgers in regards to Rutgers: A nightmare matchup for the depth-challenged Scarlet Knights, who are likely to be overwhelmed by Wisconsin's clear advantage on the lines, in the running game and on defense.

The other, less conventional way to view it: Wisconsin’s style of play is not the shock-and-awe style Ohio State and others play. The Badgers aren’t really a team that scores 21 points in four minutes and leaves your head spinning. So if Rutgers can handle the physicality and contain Heisman Trophy candidate Jonathan Taylor - a colossal ask - the Scarlet Knights might surprise and hang around in the game. This contest has trap game potential too; Wisconsin is at Northwestern the previous week and at Penn State and Purdue in the two weeks following its game against the Scarlet Knights.

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2. PENN STATE

Date: Nov. 17.
All-time series: Penn State leads 26-2.
Average score since Rutgers entered Big Ten: Penn State 31, Rutgers 10 in four games.
Rutgers' FPI victory percentage: 10.1 percent.

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Joe Hermitt | jhermitt@pennlive.com

The outlook: If Rutgers beats Penn State this fall, it won't necessarily be the biggest win in school history. But it would likely be the most celebrated one. The Nittany Lions are recruiting at an extremely high level and still have quarterback Trace McSorley, but this might be a bit of a transition season. Rutgers can't ask for much more than to get Penn State at home later in the season in front of what should be a raucous partisan crowd, so long as Scarlet Knight fans back up their talk, buy tickets and keep Penn State fans out.

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1. NORTHWESTERN

Date: Oct. 20
All-time series: Rutgers leads 3-0.
Average score since Rutgers entered Big Ten: Have not met.
Rutgers' FPI victory percentage: 29.6 percent.

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Jim Brown | USA TODAY Sports

The outlook: This is arguably the most important game on Rutgers' schedule. Why? It's a wild card. Northwestern has won 10 games in two of the last three seasons and it could be at that level again if quarterback Clayton Thorson is healthy from the start of the season. But if Thorson has issues returning from his ACL tear in last December's Music City Bowl, it's also easy to see the Wildcats taking a step back.

We don’t know what type of Northwestern team will show up at HighPoint.com Stadium for Homecoming. We also don’t know what the game will mean to Rutgers. Are the Scarlet Knights sitting at five wins? Have they matched the most optimistic expectations and already gotten to six? Or are they in need of wins beyond an upset of Northwestern (and that’s what it would be)? This is the most “winnable” of the upset opportunities Rutgers will get in 2018. That doesn’t mean they will pull it off though.

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James Kratch may be reached at jkratch@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamesKratch. Find NJ.com Rutgers Football on Facebook.

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